*As first published by News24 on 31 July 2025

South Africa stands at a defining moment in its engagement with the world, particularly with the US, one of our most critical economic partners. The future of our economy is inextricably linked to global trade and nowhere is this more evident than in our relationship with the US. As I write, South Africa is among scores of other countries seeking to finalise a trade deal with the US ahead of the 1 August deadline, at which point – bar a deal – South African exports to the United States will be subject to a 30% tariff, up from the current 10% baseline tariff, with 25% on vehicles, steel and aluminium.

The stakes are meaningful. South Africa’s economic ties with the US are substantial. In 2023, our exports to the US contributed approximately 2.2% to our GDP and supported some 400 000 jobs. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), now under threat, enabled the emergence of globally competitive industries, especially in the automotive sector, where South Africa is the leading non-energy AGOA exporter to the US. These successes were hard-won and delivered transformative opportunities.

Yet today, these gains are at risk. The expiration of AGOA in September, compounded by the “reciprocal tariffs,” could slash South African exports by billions of rand, devastate sectors and put as many as 100 000 jobs at risk, according to National Treasury estimates. Taken together, these developments threaten to raise costs for South African exporters and shut us out of vital supply chains. Vehicle exports to the US already collapsed by 73% in the first quarter of 2025, with further falls of 80% and 85% in April and May, respectively, according to Naamsa, the automotive business council.

The introduction of the US-SA Bilateral Relations Review Act on 7 February 2025 signalled a fundamental rethink of the centuries-old trade partnership that has helped underpin South African growth and market access for our goods. The Act’s requirement for a full-scale review of bilateral ties demands serious reflection and urgent action from the business community.

Yet, the message from the US is not one of finality, but conditional openness. American authorities clearly stated that the door remains open for investment in the US. In this context, the South African government continues to engage at multiple levels, seeking solutions and ways forward.

Their efforts, however, are only part of the answer. For South African business, survival now depends on decisive adaptation and we no longer have the luxury of time to posture or delay.

Business welcomes the government’s recent high-level engagements and the preliminary framework agreement with the US. But this is only a beginning. We must move swiftly to finalise a deal that preserves as much market access as possible, ideally exempting our most vulnerable industries from the harshest tariffs. The focus should be on mutual benefit: US access to Africa’s consumer and critical mineral markets in exchange for duty-free quotas on vehicles, steel, and value-added products.

It is also time for a wholesale rethink of domestic trade policy. The government of national unity should champion an industrial policy that catalyses global integration to foster measurable advancements in productivity and innovation.

We must prioritise diversification of export markets to build resilience. Overreliance on any one partner, even one as important as the US, is a key risk. South Africa should deepen ties with Europe, Africa and Asia while rebuilding trust and credibility in Washington. This means aligning foreign policy with economic imperatives, avoiding diplomatic spats and making the case for South Africa as a responsible global player and an irreplaceable trading partner. It is essential to support more South African SMEs and entrepreneurs in reaching global markets, through export training, mentoring and trade missions.

Several platforms hold promise. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) gives South Africa new growth pathways into Africa, while not losing focus on traditional partners in the US and Europe. By building partnerships with firms in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and across Africa, we can harness scale, share knowledge, and integrate our production into pan-African and global value chains. Regional success protects jobs at home and builds resilience against global shocks. And we have the opportunity to leverage our Mercosur partnership to promote further trade diversification, enhance industrial exports, deepen South-South cooperation and capitalise on the unique competitive advantages within Mercosur markets.

We must focus relentlessly on our export competitiveness. South African business, large and small, have the ability to deliver world-class products and services into open markets. America, the UK, China, and every serious economic actor use industrial strategies that empower their companies to seize foreign opportunities. South Africa must drive policy in the same direction.

The days of relying solely on commodity exports or government protection are over. Our future lies in building globally competitive firms across sectors. South African firms must invest in technology, R&D and workforce skills. Our strengths (as seen in the automotive sector) come from innovation and meeting global benchmarks. Companies like Sasol and MTN have proven that investing in proprietary technology and forming strategic international partnerships unlocks new markets and resilience. Businesses should leverage every available support, such as the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition’s Support Programme for Industrial Innovation (SPII), to develop high-value products and services. Innovation is our ticket to enter and win in new markets.

Business also has a direct interest in solving the decades-old problems of ports, rail and electricity. Where state-owned entities fail, private sector collaboration, via co-investment, skills sharing, or even short-term private management of key assets, is vital for keeping goods moving and export costs down.

This moment, challenging as it is, offers the opportunity for reset. By stepping up engagement and reinforcing our status as a dependable global partner, South African business can help chart a path through this moment of flux.

History will judge us not for the obstacles we inherited, but for the actions we took. The success of our trade with the US has proven transformative, but it was never guaranteed. Nor will it be in future. Business must rise to this moment to fight for our collective competitiveness. If we succeed, if we fight for our place in the world and embrace the hard work of reform, South Africa can still shape a future of shared prosperity well beyond this moment.

Ends