Private-sector earnings growth has been lower than inflation over the past five years and 8% lower than wage growth in the public sector. A common critique has been that the state has been on a hiring binge for the past decade but, as Mboweni pointed out, the years of hiring were only between 2007 and 2012.
In that period, some 190,000 people were hired and, ever since, the number of state employees has been declining.
It’s never really been about the number of employees; it’s fundamentally been about the rate of pay rises in the public sector and, of course, about the questionable quality of work.
But this was never a sustainable path and we are certainly at a point where the state has to deal with the now-massive elephant in the room. The Treasury and the various departments should expect some tough negotiating ahead with union movements, including the ANC’s alliance partner, Cosatu. It has already declared “war”.
The move to rein in wages will inevitably come with political costs – that’s par for the course. In any functioning democracy like ours, awash as it is with political contests almost every other year and the factional battles that are the hallmark of the ANC, there was an expectation that there would be no real movement on the wage bill. We were pleasantly surprised to see that there was.